Friday 7 May 2010

Morning Crumbs 2am-4am

3:55am
Ok one more totals update before we start the morning wake-up blog
Tory 138, Labour 116, Lib Dem 23. Blues pulling ahead. It's like watching your horse at the Grand National go lame.

Oooh, and c/o BBCCornwall
Predictions of a possible recount from our man in Carn Brea for the Camborne/Redruth seat, Cornwall's only 3 way marginal
3:50am:
Rochdalegate. Labour retain majority afterall.

3:47am
Clegg turns up at his constituency. Didn't he leave his house hours ago or am I going mad with exhaustion?

3.45am:
Darling interviewed and says "one of the strengths of our constitution is that there is always a government". Does that mean they will seriously stay in parliament without a majority?
Is he expecting to move back into Downing St? "It will depend what the House of Commons looks like... the pattern is mixed... the swings are not uniform... whatever happens we have to get on with it".
He clarifies that GB is the Prime Minister. Right'o.

3:40am

Hastings and Rye: Tory gain from Labour with 41.1% and 3.3% swing.
Lewes hold with 52%
Bexhill & Battle (Mum's constituency) Tory hold with 51% but a 4% swing conservative to Lib Dem.

3:35am:
Burnley Lib Dem gain over Labour with huge 9% swing.
Cameron leaves Sheffield. More interesting 'person-in-a-car' shots...
Totals now: A third of constituencies have been called: Tory 118, Labout 107, Lib Dems 19. What the hell happened to Clegg, anyway?

3:30am:
Man-on-the-ground Richard Whitehouse whispers the rumour that South East Cornwall may have swung hugely from Lib Dem to Conservative. Declaration expected soon.

3:25am:
Ok - into the 200's now.
Tory take the lead for the first time with 102 seats, Labour 99, and Lib Dem 14

Newton Abbott: Tory gain over Lib Dem with 43% and a 5.8% swing. Crumbs.

3:20am:
David Miliband - oddly sexy - can he imagine a hung parliament where parties work together? He says yes - if that's the will of the voter. Denies that Labour are 'already in talks with the Lib Dems'.

3:15am:
Loving this update from Cornwall
Truro and Falmouth count is about to start.
Julia Goldsworthy [Lib Dem - currently holding] has arrived at the count now, I’m told she is looking glamorous in a dress and stilettoes.
Jude [Labour] has also arrived although I haven’t had an update on her outfit...
Tory and Labour still neck-and-neck at Labour 92, Tory 91, Lib Dem 13.
Paxo gets gnarly again. Can Tories imagine doing a deal with the Lib Dems? They duck the question in quite an extraordinary manner.

3:05am
Totals update:
Tory and Labour now drawn 76 each, Lib Dems 9
Gordon leaving Fife to fly from Edinburgh to London for the rest of the votes. Dimbleby notes 'I hope there's no volcanic ash...'

3am:
Cam's speech - thanks his constituency - talks about the 'new gvnt' sorting out the mess of the polling stations this evening. Apologises for not spending more time locally in the last month. Thanks his team. Promises to work hard (and play hard, Dave?).
'Conservatives are on target'. Should be 'proud of the campaign we fought' It 'didn't need to make negative remarks about others'. Change requires new leadership... we will stand ready'. What will guide him is the 'national interest'. He says 'ee live in difficult times, but its a great country and we will come through them'.

2:55am:
Now for Dave of the Cam's Witney
Lib Dems 11,233
Conservative: 33,973 - Cameron re-elected
Labour 7,511
Green: 2,385
UKIP: 2,001
Speaker doesn't seem to be able to speak numerically.

Some VERY strangely dressed independent standers.

Broxtowe
UKIP 1194
Green: 423
Labour 20,196
BNP: 1,422
Conservative 20,585 - elected gained from Labour - 2.6% swing
Lib Deb 8,907


2:50am

Rumours of recount in Birmingham Edgbaston.
Could have a South East Cornwall result at 3.15amish - follow Richard Best's blogs for the Cornish results.

2:40am:
Looks like they might be calling Cameron's Witney soon. Over 100 constituencies now called
Labour 60
Tory 44
Lib Dems 6
Bond markets opened at 1am

Somerton & Frome remain Lib Dem despite Tory attention (no. 11 on their hit-list) with 47.5% of the vote.
Folkestone & Hythe Tory hold despite a Lib Deb to Tory swing of 2.6%.
Eastleigh just been confirmed as Lib Dem, taking from Tory, same as Eastbourne, although they've lost Harrogate to the blues.

2:30am

OK, the maps are starting to look quite blue now. 5.7% swing Labour to Tory in England - thought it would be an 'English' Tory gvnt. However, Labour to Tory swing in Wales is actually 4.9%.
The gap starts to close:
Labour 53
Tory 39
Lib Dem 5 (what's going on, Nick?)
I'm going to call it - Tory majority. Swings are too widespread and too massive.

2:20am
East Devon Tory hold with 48.3%
Dorset West Tory hold with 47.6%
Kettering Tory hold with 49.1%
Norfolk South Tory hold with 49.3%
Vale Of Glamorgan Tory gain over Labour with 41.8% and a 6.1% swing
Everyone now talking about Montgomeryshire where Tory have gained the seat over Lib Dems with 41.3% and a whopping 13.2% swing.
Bridgwater & West Somerset Tory hold with 45.3% but a Tory to Lib Dem swing of 2.9%

2:10am
A bit confusing, and not just brought on by excess Jaffa cakes. Tories aren't doing as well as the exit polls suggested earlier this evening.
However, the swings are still massive in some areas, but not always giving the blues an advantage. Perhaps simply outlining how much Labour win by last election.
Clegg doing nowhere near as well as his Leader Debate popularity would have suggested. As Paxo points out, 3 weeks ago Clegg was 'walking on water' but barely featuring again this evening. Mind you, much of the South West still to be called. In fact, most of the country still to be called.

Totals so far:
Labour 43
Tory 23
Lib Dem 4


2am

Jaffa cakes are somewhat depleted. Typing hands are a little achy, but we troop on regardless because this is political history in making...
Exeter just went Red (hold)with 38.2%. Another massive Labour to Tory swing of 6% though. Terrifying for Labour, although they're retaining their crown in Scotland.

Glasgow East:
Socialist: 454
Labour: 19,797 - elected
BNP: 677
Tory: 1,453
SNP: 7,957
UKIP: 209
Lib Dems: 1617
So SNP lose a seat in Glasgow. BNP candidate booed hugely.

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